Five-year performance, agency-specific forecasts, client movement, technology and M&A. Publicis, Omnicom, WPP, dentsu, Havas and Stagwell sit alongside operating peers.
01 · Performance + forecast
Publicis has the strongest momentum; WPP’s model still requires a recovery.
Forecasts combine market growth with each agency’s five-year share, client movement, current trading and specific execution risk.
US billings market share2020–2024 reported · 2025 and H1 2026 modelled
H1 2026 model22%
Post-H1 account changePepsiCo · 3 September 2026
Omnicom Media→Publicis Groupe
$780mNorth America annual media spend
This transfer is not added to the plotted percentages. The public figure covers North America rather than the US alone, and no transition date has been disclosed. On a like-for-like basis, Publicis rises and Omnicom falls by the same US billings amount.
Method: 2025 applies each group’s final global billings growth to its 2024 US base. Stagwell is held at 1.3% because comparable public 2025 US billings are unavailable. The H1 2026 model applies first-half trading to a 7.4% US market-growth assumption and therefore predates PepsiCo’s September move. Omnicom includes Mediabrands from 2026; independents are held level where comparable H1 data is unavailable.
Agency-specific billings model2024 baseline → 2029 · annual growth changes by year
Modelled
PU
Baseline+9.4%+8.1%+6.2%+5.6%+5.3%
Market+5.0ptGlobal media-spend base case
5-year share+0.4ptUS share rose 20.3% → 20.9%
Accounts+2.0pt+$10.5bn 2025 net new business
Trading+0.2pt+4.7% H1 2026 organic
Base average annual growth 6.9%. Strong account momentum lifts the base case. PepsiCo and Sanofi US strengthen the 2026 evidence, but neither is given a separate numerical uplift where transition timing or comparable billings are not disclosed. The annual path phases known wins, losses, share direction and execution effects rather than repeating one rate. Downside and upside move each year by two points. These are management assumptions, not company guidance.
Five-year reported financial trendLocal currencies and company-defined revenue measures
2021–2025
GroupTrendFY2025MarginLatest trading
Publicis GroupeNet revenue · EUR2021 = 100€14.55bn18.2%+4.7% H1 2026 organic
OmnicomRevenue · USD2021 = 100$17.27bn15.6%+6.1% Q2 2026 core organicFY2025 includes one month of Interpublic.
WPPRevenue less pass-through · GBP2021 = 100£10.18bn13.0%+0.3% WPP Media Q3 2026 LFLGroup revenue less pass-through costs −2.1% in Q3 and −3.9% year to date.
StagwellRevenue · USD2021 = 100$2.91bn17.0%+5.0% Q2 2026 organic net revenue2021 includes MDC only from the August combination date; the trend is not pro forma.
Operating peer set
How fourteen independent and specialist agencies compare.
The cards show the figures each agency publishes, whether that is billings, managed media or fee revenue. Canvas is included as an operating peer, although it is owned by INNOCEAN.
INNOCEAN acquired 100% in 2022. Included as an operating peer, not an independent.
Key clients
Hyundai, Kia, Genesis, Zillow, Amazon MGM Studios, Edward Jones, Five Guys
Technology
Data-informed stack · Dstillery DS-1
Method + sources
Reported, estimated and modelled data remain separate.
Revenue comes from filings. Billings and market share use COMvergence estimates. Client moves and transactions are public, named evidence rather than complete private-market databases. Forecast drivers are explicit management assumptions.
