Total display spend by environmentUSD billions
2025–30Download
MetaGoogle + YouTubeAmazonOther closedPublisher directOpen web
US digital display market forecast
US display reaches $358.5B by 2030; the open web reaches $62.6B.
Open-web mixShare of open-web programmatic
Video: 53% → 77%Download
2025$39.5B
2026$43.2B
2027$47.2B
2028$52.1B
2029$57.1B
2030$62.6B
CTVOnline videoNon-video display
+$125.6BTotal display · 2026–30
+$101.2BClosed environments · 2026–30
+$24.1BOpen-web video · 2026–30
−$4.6BNon-video display · 2026–30
The market is doing two quite different things. CTV and online video expand quickly, while the residual open-web display pool contracts after 2026. The company model below uses those channel paths as a demand factor rather than applying one market CAGR to every business.
View forecast breakdown
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Scroll horizontally for the full forecast. Segment names stay pinned.
| Segment | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meta | $81.5B | $100.9B | $114.1B | $129.1B | $146.1B | $165.3B |
| Google + YouTube | $15.8B | $16.6B | $17.5B | $18.5B | $19.6B | $20.7B |
| Amazon display | $14.9B | $17.8B | $20.3B | $23.2B | $26.6B | $30.4B |
| Other closed environments | $32.9B | $41.5B | $53.3B | $61.9B | $63.4B | $61.5B |
| Publisher direct | $12.7B | $13.0B | $14.1B | $15.3B | $16.6B | $18.0B |
| Open-web CTV | $6.0B | $6.6B | $7.4B | $8.9B | $10.3B | $12.0B |
| Open-web online video | $14.9B | $17.4B | $21.0B | $25.0B | $30.0B | $36.0B |
| Open-web non-video display | $18.6B | $19.3B | $18.8B | $18.2B | $16.8B | $14.7B |
Published inputs: EMARKETER, Inc. (May and June 2026), including US digital display, open-web and walled-garden programmatic display, programmatic video and CTV series. EMARKETER publishes total display through 2030 and open-web programmatic through 2028. Category definitions, the video split and 2029–30 open-web extensions: Goode Media Consulting. Figures may not sum because of rounding.
Reported results and estimates
Revenue growth and margin outlook
Metric
Scenario
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Annual net revenue growth
Year-on-year growth in the closest comparable net-revenue measure. Forecast years combine channel demand, company beta, structural share change and a decaying FY26 shock.
MagnitePubMaticThe Trade DeskViantNexxenTeadsEstimate
Fastest FY26 base growth
Viant
24%Net revenue growth · base caseStrongest Q2 sell-side signal
Magnite
+17%Q2 2026 net revenue growthScale in 2030
The Trade Desk
$4.00BNet revenue · base caseHighest forecast uncertainty
Teads
10 ptsFY26 growth range · guidance suspendedLatest pulse
Q2 2026 snapshot
Quarterly results and updated guidance calibrate each company's forecast path.
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Scroll horizontally for all measures. Company names stay pinned.
| Company | Reported revenue | Net revenue | Adj. EBITDA margin | YoY signal | Model read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MagniteMGNI | $193M | $190M | 37% | +17%Net rev. YoY | CTV strength + raised FY26 ex-TAC outlook |
| PubMaticPUBM | $78.6M | $78.6M | 25% | +11%Revenue YoY | AI products + return to double-digit growth |
| The Trade DeskTTD | $715M | $715M | 34% | +3%Revenue YoY | Near-term reset; recovery begins in FY27 |
| ViantDSP | $104M | $60.2M | 24% | +24%Net rev. YoY | CTV + AI attention data drive share gains |
| NexxenNEXN | $101M | $97.8M | 28% | +11%Contribution ex-TAC YoY | Raised FY26 ex-TAC guidance; midpoint $395M |
| TeadsTEAD | $285M | $123M | 5.7% | -14%Ex-TAC gross profit YoY | Guidance suspended; model reset to H1 run rate |
How the forecast is built
Driver model and assumptions
Each company has its own revenue anchor, demand mix, market beta, share assumption, shock decay and EBITDA conversion. The outputs no longer follow a common curve.
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Revenue growth frameworkChannel demand × market beta + structural share change + decaying FY26 shock
Margins are calculated from the FY26 anchor, incremental EBITDA conversion and disclosed or modelled cost actions. Channel splits where undisclosed, beta, structural alpha and shock half-lives are Goode Media Consulting judgements.
Build FY26
Company guidance is used where it exists. Otherwise H1 actuals, Q3 guidance and normalised fourth-quarter seasonality set the range.
Map the channel mix
CTV, online video and residual display use separate EMARKETER paths. Disclosed company mix is used first; missing splits remain visible as model proxies.
Estimate share and recovery
Market beta sets sensitivity to demand. Structural alpha captures durable share movement, while a half-life stops one strong or weak year running forever.
Convert growth into EBITDA
Incremental margins determine how much added net revenue becomes EBITDA. Teads and The Trade Desk include explicit recovery assumptions.
How to read the demand mix: these are forecast weights, not a standardised reported revenue split. A reported anchor uses a disclosed CTV revenue or spend figure; the balance is a Goode Media Consulting estimate. Open the source label in each row for the precise basis.
Scroll horizontally for the full model. Company names stay pinned.
| Company | FY26 anchor | Demand proxy CTV / OLV / display | Market beta | Structural alpha | FY26 shock / half-life | Incremental EBITDA | FY30 net revenue range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MagniteHigh · FY26 company guidance | +13.5%13.0% to +14.0% | CTV 51%OLV 24%Display 25% Reported CTV · modelled DV+ split +Q2 contribution ex-TAC was disclosed as 51% CTV, 35% mobile and 14% desktop. The 24% OLV / 25% display split is a Goode Media Consulting proxy within DV+. Open company source ↗ | 0.90×252% demand CAGR | +2.0 ptsannual share assumption | +2.8 pts2.5-year half-life | 48%no separate cost action | $1.27B$1.15B – $1.34B · 14% CAGR |
| PubMaticMedium · H1 actuals + Q3 guidance | +8.5%5.5% to +11.5% | CTV 20%OLV 45%Display 35% Reported CTV · modelled remainder +Q2 CTV revenue was disclosed at approximately 20% of total revenue. The remaining 80% is allocated between OLV and display by Goode Media Consulting. Open company source ↗ | 0.80×248% demand CAGR | +2.0 ptsannual share assumption | -1.9 pts1.5-year half-life | 44%+25 bps cost action | $438M$381M – $487M · 9.3% CAGR |
| The Trade DeskMedium · H1 actuals + Q3 guidance | -1.3%-4.5% to +2.0% | CTV 35%OLV 40%Display 25% Modelled proxy +The company does not disclose channel revenue. The 35 / 40 / 25 weighting is a Goode Media Consulting proxy informed by platform positioning and disclosed partnerships. Open company source ↗ | 0.75×254% demand CAGR | +2.5 ptsannual share assumption | -11.9 pts1.0-year half-life | 48%+50 bps cost action | $4.00B$3.29B – $4.65B · 8.7% CAGR |
| ViantMedium · H1 actuals + Q3 guidance | +24.1%20.0% to +28.0% | CTV 50%OLV 30%Display 20% Reported spend · modelled remainder +Q2 CTV advertiser spend was disclosed at over 50% of platform spend. Spend mix is used as the anchor; OLV and display are Goode Media Consulting proxies. Open company source ↗ | 1.00×257% demand CAGR | +5.5 ptsannual share assumption | +8.2 pts1.8-year half-life | 42%no separate cost action | $569M$447M – $673M · 22% CAGR |
| NexxenHigh · FY26 company guidance | +11.9%9.9% to +13.8% | CTV 40%OLV 40%Display 20% Reported reference · modelled mix +Q1 CTV was 36% of programmatic revenue and FY2025 video was 71%. The 40 / 40 / 20 mix is a Goode Media Consulting proxy, not a reported split. Open company source ↗ | 0.85×258% demand CAGR | +1.5 ptsannual share assumption | +1.0 pts2.0-year half-life | 42%no separate cost action | $648M$567M – $711M · 13% CAGR |
| TeadsLow · Independent run-rate estimate | -7.5%-12.0% to -2.0% | CTV 13%OLV 57%Display 30% Reported CTV · modelled remainder +Q2 CTV revenue was disclosed at 13% of total revenue. The remaining 87% is allocated between OLV and display by Goode Media Consulting. Open company source ↗ | 0.90×253% demand CAGR | +0.5 ptsannual share assumption | -18.5 pts1.3-year half-life | 38%+125 bps cost action | $598M$463M – $747M · 5.1% CAGR |
EMARKETER is the demand check, not a revenue reconciliation. The six companies are global, use different accounting and often touch the same media dollar.
Total display is published through 2030. Open-web programmatic ends in 2028, so the 2029–30 channel values extend the observed growth rates.
Downside slows market demand, reduces share capture and delays negative-shock recovery. Upside strengthens demand, share capture and EBITDA conversion.
EMARKETER treatment: the model uses the May 2026 open-web and walled-garden programmatic series and the June 2026 US display series. CTV is total programmatic CTV less programmatic-direct CTV. Online video applies the published open-web share to non-CTV programmatic video. Those classifications are Goode Media Consulting estimates and should be read as demand proxies.
Nexxen treatment: the company reports under IFRS and defines contribution ex-TAC as a non-IFRS measure. The dashboard uses that measure as the closest comparable net revenue. FY2026 is anchored to the $395M midpoint of guidance issued on August 12, 2026; later years are independent scenario estimates.
Teads treatment: 2023 and 2024 are legacy Outbrain results. FY2025 includes legacy Teads from February 3, so the jump is an acquisition discontinuity rather than organic growth. Teads suspended its 2026 guidance on August 6, 2026; the FY2026 base case is therefore an independent run-rate estimate, not company guidance.
Scenario output
Annual net revenue growth
Base case
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Scroll horizontally for the full forecast. Company names stay pinned.
| Company | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E | 2030E | ’25–’30 CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magnite | 10% | 14% | 14% | 16% | 13% | 12% | — |
| PubMatic | -2.9% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 10% | 9.1% | 7.9% | — |
| The Trade Desk | 18% | -1.3% | 5.8% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 9.6% | — |
| Viant | 18% | 24% | 23% | 24% | 21% | 19% | — |
| Nexxen | 2.8% | 12% | 13% | 15% | 13% | 12% | — |
| Teads | 124% | -7.5% | 1.4% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 7.0% | — |